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西方品牌押注中國消費者在疫情過后仍將在國內(nèi)消費。

Western brandsbet on Chinese shoppers staying at home beyond the Covid-19 pandemic.

海南海灘上的游客。海南這座熱帶島嶼被稱為中國的夏威夷，如今這里是免稅購物中心

?Roman Pilipey/EPA-EFE 愛德華·懷特和利拉·阿布德2021年4月16日于首爾和巴黎報道

在中國古代，當詩人、文人和大臣們失寵于中國皇帝時，就會被流放到海南島，任其在有著土著部落的原始叢林中自生自滅。

When poets,literati and courtiers fell out of favour with China’s emperors, they werebanished to the island of Hainan to fend for themselves among wild jungles andindigenous tribes.

如今，這個被稱為中國夏威夷的熱帶度假勝地，已成為遭受新冠病毒大流行重創(chuàng)的全球奢侈品市場中少有的亮點。

Today, thetropical resort destination known as China’s Hawaii has become a rare brightspot in the global luxury market, which has been hit hard by the coronaviruspandemic.

“海南島火了。”旗下?lián)碛蠱ichaelKors和范思哲（Versace）品牌的CapriHoldings負責人約翰·D·伊多爾（John D Idol）今年2月對分析師表示。

“Hainan Islandis on fire,” John D Idol, who heads Capri Holdings, owner of the Michael Korsand Versace brands, told analysts in February.

為了刺激國內(nèi)消費，中國政府已將海南島變成了一個免稅購物中心。游客可以盡情享受古馳（Gucci）和普拉達（Prada）的時裝、卡地亞（Cartier）的珠寶、雅詩蘭黛（ESTēE LAUDER）的美容產(chǎn)品或麥卡倫（Macallan）的高檔威士忌。

To boostdomestic consumption, the Chinese government has turned the island into aduty-free shopping hub. Visitors can indulge in fashion from Gucci and Prada,jewellery from Cartier, beauty products from Este?e Lauder or premium whiskyfrom The Macallan.

由于新冠疫情帶來的旅游限制措施，近年來推動奢侈品行業(yè)增長的中國購物者不再能夠前往巴黎、倫敦、米蘭或香港購物，這也使得海南的人氣變得更加火爆。

Hainan becameeven more popular when Covid-19 travel restrictions meant Chinese consumers,who have driven luxury sector growth in recent years, could no longer go onshopping trips to Paris, London, Milan or Hong Kong.

資料來源：咨詢公司貝恩（Bain）

海南島是奢侈品重心向中國傾斜的有力象征，這很像幾十年前日本購物者的"回流"趨勢。他們過去也在國外購買路易威登（Louis Vuitton）和巴黎世家（Balenciaga）的產(chǎn)品，而現(xiàn)在則在國內(nèi)購買。

The island is apowerful symbol of how luxury’s centre of gravity is tilting towards China,mirroring the “repatriation” trend in earlier decades of Japanese shoppers whoused to buy Louis Vuitton and Balenciaga abroad but now do so at home.

這一點在行業(yè)領(lǐng)頭羊路易威登集團（LVMH）身上體現(xiàn)得尤為明顯。該公司的加速復蘇在很大程度上由中國推動。路易威登周二表示，其今年第一季度在亞洲（不包括日本）的銷售額比2019年疫情爆發(fā)前的同期高出26%。

Nowhere is thisclearer than at sector leader LVMH, whose accelerating recovery has beenfuelled in large part by China. The company said on Tuesday that itsfirst-quarter sales in Asia excluding Japan were 26 per cent higher than in thecorresponding period of 2019, before the pandemic.

分析師們預計，即使中國購物者可以再次旅行，他們也會繼續(xù)在國內(nèi)購物。這是因為各大品牌爭相開設(shè)實體店，并擴大電子商務業(yè)務，比如阿里巴巴旗下天貓奢侈品商城的線上商店。

Even whenChinese shoppers can travel again, analysts expect they will continue to buy athome as brands open bricks-and-mortar stores and expand ecommerce offerings,such as virtual stores on Alibaba’s Tmall Luxury Pavilion.

根據(jù)咨詢公司貝恩（Bain）的數(shù)據(jù)，中國消費者在國內(nèi)購買高端產(chǎn)品的比例從2019年的32%飆升至2020年的70%以上。一旦疫情的影響消退，預計到2025年，這一數(shù)字將達到55%左右。

The share ofChinese consumers’ high-end purchases within the country soared from 32 percent in 2019 to more than 70 per cent in 2020, according to consultancy Bain,and is expected to be about 55 per cent by 2025 once the pandemic effect fades.

今年三十歲的Amy Dai是這些奢侈品品牌所吸引的典型消費者之一。她居住在重慶，過去曾前往歐洲購買奢侈品，是中國每年1.7億海外游客中的一員。在疫情爆發(fā)前，中國游客的支出占全球奢侈品銷售總額的三分之一以上。

Amy Dai isemblematic of the consumer those brands have been able to attract. The30-yearold resident of Chongqing used to make pilgrimages to Europe to buyluxury goods, one of China’s 170m annual overseas travellers whose spendingaccounted for more than a third of all global luxury sales before the pandemicstruck.

但去年，戴女士坐了兩個小時的飛機到海南三亞購物，并通過網(wǎng)絡平臺購物。去年，她在購買奢侈品上花費了100多萬元人民幣（約15萬美元），比2019年還多。

But last year,Dai took a two-hour flight to the Hainan city of Sanya to shop, and to do soturned to online platforms. Her spending on luxury items topped Rmb1m($150,000) last year, more than in 2019.

“在疫情爆發(fā)之前，我確實更喜歡出國購物，或偶爾通過海外代購渠道購買產(chǎn)品，”她表示，“疫情爆發(fā)后，我就開始在國內(nèi)零售商那里購買了，這樣我才能在第一時間買到最新的產(chǎn)品?！?/p>

“Before thepandemic, I did prefer going abroad or occasionally I would buy from overseaspurchasing agents,” she said. “Since the pandemic started I’ve switched todomestic retailers, because otherwise I can’t get the latest editions in time.”

根據(jù)貝恩的數(shù)據(jù)，去年全球奢侈品銷售額為2170億歐元，下降了約五分之一。在經(jīng)歷了艱難的2020年后，奢侈品行業(yè)正指望中國消費者推動復蘇。

The luxurysector is counting on Chinese consumers to fuel the recovery after a difficult2020 in which sales contracted by roughly a fifth to €217bn globally, accordingto Bain.

中國相對成功地遏制了疫情，經(jīng)濟迅速復蘇——去年第四季度，中國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）增長已經(jīng)恢復到疫情爆發(fā)前的水平——這對于維持針對全球經(jīng)濟增長的樂觀情緒發(fā)揮了關(guān)鍵作用。

China’scomparatively successful suppression of the virus and rapid economic recovery —gross domestic product growth returned to pre-pandemic levels in the fourthquarter — played a pivotal role in maintaining optimism.

復蘇最初是由“報復性購物”促成的，或者說是在世界上人口最多的國家擺脫全國封鎖后的放縱，但之后出現(xiàn)了更為持久的復蘇動力。

The recovery wasinitially spurred by “revenge shopping”, or indulging after the world’s mostpopulous country emerged from a nationwide lockdown, but has since given way tosomething more durable.

一家歐洲品牌駐北京的員工表示:“有很多富人在高增長行業(yè)工作或持有表現(xiàn)良好的股票。他們從疫情中受益?！痹撊耸垦a充說，高端珠寶已經(jīng)“賣瘋了”。

“There areplenty of rich people who have benefited from the pandemic as they work in high-growthindustries or own well-performing stocks,” said a Beijing-based employee of aEuropean brand. High-end jewellery, the person added, was “selling like crazy”.

疫情還加速了中國奢侈品市場正在發(fā)生的轉(zhuǎn)變，比如電子商務的擴張，進口關(guān)稅的降低，以及對由“代購”推動的灰色市場采取更加嚴格的管制。“代購”是一些專業(yè)買家的簡稱，這些人代替中國大陸人在海外購買手表、珠寶、服裝和化妝品等產(chǎn)品。在過去，在中國銷售的商品要比在歐洲或美國銷售的商品貴得多，而如今，各大品牌已經(jīng)開始著手縮小這種價格差異。

The pandemicalso accelerated shifts that were under way in China’s luxury market, such asthe expansion of ecommerce, lower import duties and tighter controls over thegrey market driven by daigou, professional shoppers who buy watches, jewellery,clothes and cosmetics overseas on behalf of mainland Chinese. Brands hadalready begun narrowing the price differential that had made goods sold inChina more expensive than those stocked in Europe or the US.

這一趨勢也促使奢侈品牌加大在中國的投資。

Such trends haveprompted luxury brands to invest more in China.

資料來源：海南海關(guān)；來自伯恩斯坦研究公司的預估和分析

杰富瑞（Jefferies）分析師的一份報告顯示，只有路易威登（Louis Vuitton）、博柏利（Burberry）和古馳（Gucci）在中國最大的25個城市都開設(shè)了門店，這表明其他品牌在這方面可能需要“加把勁”。

A report fromJefferies analysts found that only Louis Vuitton, Burberry and Gucci had storesin all of China’s 25 biggest cities, suggesting that others might need toexpand their footprints.

對于這些國外品牌來說，讓自己的產(chǎn)品在海南銷售，可能是吸引更多中國消費者的一種有效方式。

Planting a flagin Hainan could be an effective way to get in front of more Chinese consumers.

日本化妝品品牌資生堂（Shiseido）計劃在年底前，將其在海南的銷售柜臺數(shù)量增加一倍，增至60個。雅詩蘭黛（Este?e Lauder）也表示，消費者對其產(chǎn)品有強勁的需求。

Shiseido, theJapanese beauty brand, plans to double its sales counters on the island to 60by the end of the year. Este?e Lauder also said it was experiencing strongdemand.

伯恩斯坦研究公司（BernsteinResearch）的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美容和化妝品占海南免稅銷售額的近一半，而奢侈品約占銷售額的三分之一。但后者增長迅速，過去6年，在海南銷售產(chǎn)品的奢侈品牌數(shù)量增長了80%?！拔覀冾A計還會有更多品牌加入，”伯恩斯坦的分析師寫道。

Beauty andcosmetics products account for almost half of all duty free sales in Hainan,according to Bernstein Research, while luxury goods make up about one-third ofsales. But the latter are growing rapidly with the number of luxury brands onthe island up 80 per cent in the past six years. “We expect more are going tocome,” Bernstein analysts wrote.

瑞銀（UBS）分析師陳欣（音）表示，海南2020年的免稅銷售額較上年增長一倍以上，達到300億元人民幣。她預計，2019年至2025年的年均復合增長率將達到40%。

Chen Xin, ananalyst at UBS, said Hainan’s duty free sales more than doubled in 2020 fromthe previous year to Rmb30bn, and she forecast a compound annual growth rate of40 per cent from 2019-25.

游客在海南?？谝患颐舛惖曩徺I手提包

羅云飛（音）中國新聞社（來自Getty）

而旨在發(fā)展海南島免稅購物的政策變化，對這種增長起了進一步的鞏固作用。

Furtherunderpinning this growth were policy changes intended to build up duty freeshopping on the island.

還有人擔心，海南島有被“代購”濫用的風險。

Others worrythat the island risks being abused by daigou.

“我們相信海南的發(fā)展是積極的，但我們必須保持謹慎，共同努力，以確保這里不會成為中國灰色產(chǎn)業(yè)的溫床，”全球最大奢侈品集團路易威登的首席財務官讓·雅克·吉約尼（Jean Jacques Guiony）表示。

“We believe thedevelopment of Hainan is positive but we must remain careful and work togetherto ensure that it does not become a hub for the grey market in China,” saidJean Jacques Guiony, chief financial officer of LVMH, the world’s biggestluxury group.

“如果消費者到海南旅游，來到我們的精品店，那么我們隨時準備為他們服務。但如果是批量購買，然后轉(zhuǎn)手賣給中介，那就不行?！?/p>

“If consumerstravel to Hainan and come to our boutiques, then we are ready to serve them.But if it is to buy in bulk and then resell to intermediaries, then no.”

盡管存在這些擔憂，但路易威登集團已通過其旅游零售部門DFS在海南進行擴張。他們與深圳市國有免稅商品（集團）有限公司（ShenzhenDuty Free Group）合作，在一個著名度假勝地開設(shè)了一個名為?？谟^瀾湖（Mission Hills）的免稅購物商城。免稅城于今年1月開業(yè)，未來兩年將繼續(xù)擴大規(guī)模，達到3萬多平方米的零售空間。

Despite thoseconcerns, LVMH has expanded on Hainan via DFS, its travel retail division. Thecompany has partnered with Shenzhen Duty Free Group on a duty free mall calledHaikou Mission Hills located in a popular resort. It opened in January but willbe expanded over the next two years to reach more than 30,000 sq m of retailspace.

來自上海的35歲營銷主管Sharron Zhou在春節(jié)期間去海南旅游時，就遇到了擁擠的人潮，這讓她望而卻步，最終空手而歸?！案揪驼也坏降陠T……還有人踩我的腳，”她說。不過，像觀瀾湖這樣的免稅城可能有助于緩解這種情況。

Suchdestinations could help alleviate the crowds that Sharron Zhou, a 35-year oldmarketing executive from Shanghai, ran into during her trip to Hainan over thelunar new year. She was so put off she did not buy anything. “You couldn’tfindsalespeople . . . People were stepping on my feet,” she said.

王雪喬（音）、孫宇（音）、愛麗絲·伍德豪斯（Alice Woodhouse）于上海、北京和香港補充報道

文章來源：金融時報FINANCIAL TIMES